Today is an example of the news blowing up the charts. We had a nice setup for a down turn and the news has now changed that. I had to wait until tonight to look at the news to see exactly what happened. Major Central Banks made it easier for European banks to get money. This rescued the Euro and caused the dollar to go south. When the dollar goes south the market goes up. Let’s see what happens next.
The market this morning is going up due to the news. I am not going to get into the trades this morning that I set up last night.
Well this is already pretty crazy. I did get it right to the high of the day. It hit the 38.2% retrace on the fib of $121.00 which I spoke about yesterday. So what will tomorrow bring. I am looking for it to go down to the $118.40 level and stutter before it goes to the $115.83. If we can get a close below the low of today on the daily charts at end of day tomorrow. This will be a great signal to get into puts. We shall see.
I looked at two trades this morning. URBN and ALXN Pattern is a Pennant. The setup looks good but I cant get a 2:1. The targets are to low for my taste. Besides I think the market is going to turn down today.
This is a link to a projection which is tracking pretty true of the SPX which is the S&P 500 chart. If this continues we are going to see quite a drop.
I got it right today. The SPY bounced off of the 50% channel line and made it to the GAP. It may go to 121 in the morning before it rolls over. I say this because of the 38.2% Fibonacci. This should act as resistance. We shall see. So far with this strategy I am 11 of 16 trades successful.
Swingprob… Swing Trader with an emphasis on high probability trades. I am watching for patterns that indicate a good set up. Some of my favorite patterns are Channels, Triangles and Head and Shoulders to name a few. I will try to track the probability of each pattern and the trades associated with each. Here we go…
Here is a copy of the market as I see it currently. We are in a downtrend coming to a support level indicated by the downward channel 50% point. This is easiest to see by looking at the daily chart. Monday will be interesting. I am expecting the SPY to go up a little this week. It is a hard call due to what is happening in Europe. The Euro is causing the dollar to go up and thus causing the SPY to go down. I have quite a few puts currently and I am waiting for them to hit their targets.