Category Archives: Daily Analysis

This is for post of the daily analysis.

Finding Resistance

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03142016

/ES S&P 500

This area may give it up eventually. I am seeing this as an area for a pull back. I am still out of this for the long term. My daily charts said to go long which I would still be if I had stayed with the chart. Still long the XLU. Looks like it is running out of gas for the up move. I hope it has a small pull back and then goes again. We shall see.

USD/CAD

Pretty typical move below the resistance. Look for a retest.

/CL Oil

This is not a happy chart. It hit resistance and Iran snubs the big dogs. See what happens when it hits the 34 area. I say it is going to get real tight.

/GC Gold

Gold is looking to find resistance. Let’s see if the last high will be the swing high. Watch as it pulls back into one of the fib levels.

To Resist is FUTILE

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ES 06042014

It has been a while since I posted. This chart is a pretty simple read. We are pushing up against the 78.6 Fib extension level. I am long for the last couple of weeks SPY QQQ DIA XLK XLB and XLV. This is really bullish trading out of the consolidation of the last month or more. Watch this level 1925 should see a pull back going into the end of the week. What I think is going to happen though is we consolidate for the next move higher. The On Balance Volume is rocking on almost every sector. The only potential short is the XLE Energy sector. Price is too strong though at this point to get the short. For the most part I am riding this swing and waiting for the next opportunity.  Happy trading.

Pays to be a Bear

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ES02032014The Bears are dancin’. I felt that if we broke the 1812.50 area that we would trade for a while in the 1774-1812.50 area. Market traded down to 1774 for a bit held there for a few days and today the bottom fell out. I still am thinking this is just a correction. Look for the 35 to hold. If we can not muster a bounce here then we will see 25 area and very likely we see 1705 which happens to be the monthly S2. I still do not have a longer term short signal for the S&P. The Dow is another story I got a short signal on it last week. I am doing well with this market. Started picking up a few shorts 2 weeks ago. All of these positions are risk free trades. I am long GLD with full risk and did place a trade for MSFT long today. Taking a little heat on MSFT but it should be ok. Gold has broken a downtrend line and is seeing volume come in. I also entered a long position on KRED. This is a position trade meaning I like the story. Nothing to do with the chart. I entered it at .75. Hope this helps…Happy Trading!!!!

Weekly Chart Read

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01132014 ESIt has been a bit since I posted. I was pretty close last month with saying we would see 1830. This is a new month and we are at some interesting areas. First few days of trading in January down. Many traders get spooked over this. We shall see. Today is pretty important to see where we close. If we close below 1812.50 on the /ES we will be into the last consolidation area. I feel this is going to happen. The overall buying volume is still strong so we will have to watch. The sectors are getting weaker and weaker. Usually it is just a few but we are seeing many trade lower. So I am thinking this is a move where big money wants to be out instead of moving to another sector. Another thought is that I am short for the first time in a long time a couple of trades… WLT, CLF and I am long the GDX. These are bearish plays. I still have a few longs with no risk. the only trade I am long full rick is CNX. ADI I was able to get risk out for a profitable trade. I took a loss on LLY. Still hitting 70% win rate.

Santa Clause Rally????

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ES12072013Is this the Santa Clause Rally? Money is going into the technology and Finance sectors. The retail sector is probably the worse of the major sectors I follow. The overall market is very bullish thanks to the Fridays jobs report. With technology leading the charge I feel we are in for more upside. In the last post I noted the 1773 area is the level to look for a bounce and that is close to what happened. Going forward I think the most bullish scenario plays out which is a move to 1830 then to 1860 by the end of the month. As far as my swing trades go I am long with risk ADI and LLY. I picked up ADI this week. Long with no risk I have BAC, PRU and XLE. In summary Santa Clause Rally yes but not on the back of retail. Have a great week of trading.

Higher and Higher

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ES12022013Getting a little tricky here. I have a target of around 1860 by the end of the month. See if we have the push (volume) to get us there. I am looking for 1830 first. All of this is only if the 1773 area holds. If the 1773 area gives it up then look for the next level to hold 1727. I am still bullish this market. I entered one long position LLY last week. I am taking some heat on this trade for now. I am long with no risk on BAC PRU and XLE. December can be one of the most difficult months to trade. Look for retail to influence trading this month. So let’s see how it goes. Happy Trading.

All Time Highs Again

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ES11092013What can I say we are going higher. I really wanted to see a stronger pull back so I could get into more positions. I only picked up one swing trade this week which was BAC long. I had a position on PRU that I scaled due to the earnings report. I am not a fan of being in a full position going into earnings. Made money on the scale and earnings came in really good driving the price higher. Gotta love the fed. I am cautious here due to being at the top of the longer term channel. However the On Balance Volume (OBV) and Advance Decline (AD) are bullish. Price is telling me to look for the pull back but with the OBV and AD my intuition says “TO INFINITY AND BEYOND”. Going to be a fun week next week I feel.

$ES Goes crazy on Bernanke remarks

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5222013ESThis is an amazing move on Bernanke comments today. The Fed needs to continue with QE. This is crazy and when they stop QE look out below. I have no idea what the FOMC minutes will reveal later today. Looking at a chart of the $ES you can see the stair step move. This is indicative of a strong up trend. Be careful though. This market needs to correct.