Inflation Coming ??

Posted on by

03202016

/ES S&P

Boy I sure should follow my trade plan. If I had I would still be long the SPY. This just reinforces the need to stay on plan. This move above the previous resistance is pretty strong. It look for a little bit that the volume was not there. Now we just have to wait for the pull back. going to see where it comes back to. Once the swing high gets established I will have some levels to work with.

USD/CAD

The dollar is finally giving up the ghost. I was talking with some trading friends and they put it well. They said it looks like inflation is coming. So the big guys are setting up for this. Dollar down gold up.

/CL

Barring a catastrophe, Oil is bottomed out. Down trend is over for now. Look for a swing high pull back. May not be far from here.

/GC 

I have swing trades on for the GDX and GLD. If the inflation play is on this will head to higher ground. I went back a couple of years and found the level that I placed on this chart. See if pulls it up. We do not have a swing high.

Finding Resistance

Posted on by

03142016

/ES S&P 500

This area may give it up eventually. I am seeing this as an area for a pull back. I am still out of this for the long term. My daily charts said to go long which I would still be if I had stayed with the chart. Still long the XLU. Looks like it is running out of gas for the up move. I hope it has a small pull back and then goes again. We shall see.

USD/CAD

Pretty typical move below the resistance. Look for a retest.

/CL Oil

This is not a happy chart. It hit resistance and Iran snubs the big dogs. See what happens when it hits the 34 area. I say it is going to get real tight.

/GC Gold

Gold is looking to find resistance. Let’s see if the last high will be the swing high. Watch as it pulls back into one of the fib levels.

/ES is Making a Change

Posted on by

03072016

/ES S&P

Support tested and held. Notice my resistance area which I think will hold. We definately have a trend change setting up. My daily charts set up for the longs. I broke my rules and only got long the XLU which can trade against trend.

USD/CAD

The 1.37 area has given up the fight. Still staying close to the previous support 1.33-1.34. 1.27-1.28 is the next level. See if it can make there.

/CL Oil

27.00 area held up. looks like it is setting a trading range from 27-38.00. I did get a good signal to go long last week. I thought about the manipulation and decided to wait. Broke the rules. The trade would have gone great just like the /ES long.

/GC Gold

Happy happy happy. Looking for where it can find resistance. Watch 1280.

 

No Surprises

Posted on by

02192016

ES S&P 500

No real change from last weeks look. I think the Fed and Oil is trying to make moves to save this level. Personally I feel they will fail just not sire how long it will take. I am out of everything at present.

USD/CAD

Same as before, The are 1.37 is holding. I keep hoping for it to come below. When I say hope there is no technical reason for it to hold. Pretty simple. If the 1.37 does not hold then see how long it trades at the 1.34 area.

 

CL Oil

Interesting thing this week as Saudi Arabia, Iran and Russia talked about holding this record level of production. Let’s see who blinks. I say this area holds unless they turn down the spickets. You can see the levels that are in play now. See if it can form a bottom. Another note I received a signal to short today. I chose not to take it because I think they will manipulate. I also would like to see more room to move. These are excuses. We shall see if my feelings are warranted. It sure makes a trading system hard to measure when I do this kind of thing.

GC Gold

No changes really from last week. It did move above the level I discussed however came right back to hold 1240. I should be long this but missed it the day I received the signal. I missed the GDX also. Man I hate it when that happens.

Getting Caught Up

Posted on by

02102016

/ES S&P 500

Trying to find support at the 1800 area. I am pretty confident they are going to test this area again. It will then go to 1940 if it holds. I was short the DIA the first of December and made a really nice trade to the area it is trading now. I also shorted the DIA on 2/02/2016 which I am out of the second half now. Still short half on the IWM. I sure hope this area does not hold.

USD/CAD

If you are Canadian you hope this 1.37 area breaks down. We shall see. I think it will give to the next level of 1.35.

/CL Oil

Next level is 23.22. I am pretty sure it will hold and go into a range 32.50 to 23.22. It is making a nice structured move down.

/GC Gold

Pretty nice move. Should see a stall at 1235ish. See if it goes to 1235 and pulls back to 1190 area. Like to see it do that then make a strong run at the 1235 area. I received signals on the GLD and GDX but work got in the way. Missed it. Ugh!!

Topping Formation ???

Posted on by

05012015Let’s bring this up to date.

ES trading sideways here at a top. tops take longer to form than bottoms. This is twice that it has tested both resistance and support. Look for it to move to support. Might want to sell half at this point and set a close stop on the short. May get a runner to the downside.

CL is looking good for a call. Still no clear resistance. look for a pull back then move higher.

GC Head and shoulders forming. See what happens with the neck line bottom.

USD/CAD Making a move to the support area. When it gets here see how it behaves before next position. Now would be a good time to get rid of half of the short.

My overall thoughts on the markets. ES is going to be more quiet on the top here. Fed has too much control. I think topping pattern and then down. However the wildcard is the Fed coming to the rescue. Read above on the rest. Happy trading!!

Quite a Mix

Posted on by

02082015

ES is trading in a pretty nice range of consolidation. anything long term I am waiting for it to make up its mind. Might be time for a few condors. I have a hard time playing the sideways channels. I would rather look for confirmation from resistance to support this week.

USD/CAD I think this is going to test the highs from March of 2009. Keep the averaging in strategy. Next short will be placed when the 1.30 is dealt with one way or another.

CL Back above 50. May make a run for the 70 mark. Sure is overdue for the correction after this last huge move. Watch the 59.30 area for a stall. before heading to the 70.00

Gold This is doing pretty much as planned. I do not like that it went below the 1239. Look for it to go into the 1225 area before turning. We shall see.

S&P Looking for Support

Posted on by

02022015

ES is going sideways as discussed in the last post. No changes. Watch the 1961.50 area to hold support. No entries at this time.

USD/CAD I am tracking this due to the many Canadian friends I encounter each day. I see this holding below 1.3062 for a while. Might be a good time to buy Canadian dollars. Average in anyway. By a half position with the anticipation that this will hold and pull back to the 1.18 area.

CL Oil is trying to find support. I feel that it wants to go lower. It needs to get back above 50 and stay. If not I look for it to test this spot as resistance and go lower.

GC is going to pull back to around 1239 before it try’s to make another run.

Break Out Gold, Oil finding support and the S&P trying to Hold

Posted on by

01182015

ES has made turns in the lower support box 2 weeks in a row. Look for it to hold this area for a little longer. for it to go down it needs to break and close below 1961.50. I think this is not likely.

TF same set up as the ES

CL created a doji (indecision) candle. Starting to look like it is going to hold. I do not trust it. Sure needs to go up for a bit to find the resistance.

GC Break out as we discussed last week. Actually it moved very well once it got above 1239. Might see 1311 next week. I think the odds are higher that it test the 1239. We shall see.