Mixed Signals

01122015

ES Got it right last week for the most part. Went below the 2000 before turning. Now it is wanting to hold here. If it breaks the 2080 it will move a little higher. I think it is going to hold here for a bit. We shall see.

TF Same read as the ES

CL Oil is still in trouble. I have no real support until the 32 area. It will probably find refuge at 40. It sure needs a break. Still heading south though.

GC watch 1239 for the breakout. I think it will chop here for a bit between 1175 and 1239. The bigger chance is that it will do this and eventually break out.

Looks Like Resistance But…

usdcad01102015

USD/CAD Looking like this is going higher. The strength into this spot is moving quickly. If the resistance does not hold, next stop is the area above. Oil is not helping and it has a lot to do with what happens in Canada. So we shall see I would want to have confirmation of a break out (long) or a pull back (short). My thought is the break out. We shall see.

New Year Opportunity Knocks

01042015

ES is more than likely going to pull back. It started Friday. The traders that were forced to work over the holidays drove it up on very light volume. Now the pull back is on. look for the turn around the 2000 mark.

TF pulled back Friday however it found some support just outside last weeks price action. Developing a new swing until it closes below the high candles low which is this weeks candle. I do not trade the TF but it can give a clue as to what will happen to the ES.

CL Down down down. May find support at the 50ish area. Looks to me like this is no going to hold making the next stop at the 31-33 area. Shorts are enjoying this ride.

GC is trying to leak out to the 1100 area. If this area holds look for it to move to 1340 then to 1390.

To Resist is FUTILE

ES 06042014

It has been a while since I posted. This chart is a pretty simple read. We are pushing up against the 78.6 Fib extension level. I am long for the last couple of weeks SPY QQQ DIA XLK XLB and XLV. This is really bullish trading out of the consolidation of the last month or more. Watch this level 1925 should see a pull back going into the end of the week. What I think is going to happen though is we consolidate for the next move higher. The On Balance Volume is rocking on almost every sector. The only potential short is the XLE Energy sector. Price is too strong though at this point to get the short. For the most part I am riding this swing and waiting for the next opportunity.  Happy trading.

New Highs Careful

ES02272014This high has a few things happening that have me proceeding with caution. First off the latest COT report has small spec very bullish and the Large spec getting bearish. Big money is short. However price is king and price is rocking to the upside. I think this goes to the 1877 area then pulls back. I am not sure it will be a topping pattern for the /ES. We shall see. The DIA etf that mirrors the Dow is another story. I mentioned a few weeks back that I am getting short signals for the Dow. $DJI watch 16522. I think this holds and we see it head south. I am waiting for this next turn down before I short it. Gold, Silver and the miners are taking off. this could be another sign that we are not going to get much higher. In summary price is king and we trade what we see. Happy trading.

 

Pays to be a Bear

ES02032014The Bears are dancin’. I felt that if we broke the 1812.50 area that we would trade for a while in the 1774-1812.50 area. Market traded down to 1774 for a bit held there for a few days and today the bottom fell out. I still am thinking this is just a correction. Look for the 35 to hold. If we can not muster a bounce here then we will see 25 area and very likely we see 1705 which happens to be the monthly S2. I still do not have a longer term short signal for the S&P. The Dow is another story I got a short signal on it last week. I am doing well with this market. Started picking up a few shorts 2 weeks ago. All of these positions are risk free trades. I am long GLD with full risk and did place a trade for MSFT long today. Taking a little heat on MSFT but it should be ok. Gold has broken a downtrend line and is seeing volume come in. I also entered a long position on KRED. This is a position trade meaning I like the story. Nothing to do with the chart. I entered it at .75. Hope this helps…Happy Trading!!!!

Weekly Chart Read

01132014 ESIt has been a bit since I posted. I was pretty close last month with saying we would see 1830. This is a new month and we are at some interesting areas. First few days of trading in January down. Many traders get spooked over this. We shall see. Today is pretty important to see where we close. If we close below 1812.50 on the /ES we will be into the last consolidation area. I feel this is going to happen. The overall buying volume is still strong so we will have to watch. The sectors are getting weaker and weaker. Usually it is just a few but we are seeing many trade lower. So I am thinking this is a move where big money wants to be out instead of moving to another sector. Another thought is that I am short for the first time in a long time a couple of trades… WLT, CLF and I am long the GDX. These are bearish plays. I still have a few longs with no risk. the only trade I am long full rick is CNX. ADI I was able to get risk out for a profitable trade. I took a loss on LLY. Still hitting 70% win rate.